The Selection Process ii
This is part 2 of 4 of the BTT Under 2.5 goal success selection process, in this article you will find out more about what teams make for under 2.5 goal gold on the betfair exchange and also who to avoid.
Low Scoring Home Team
In a sense this should have been right at the top of Part 1, because a low scoring home team is probably the bread and butter of the under 2.5 goal trader, just like my beloved Southend United. Southend for the majority of the season had 0% of their games finishing above 2.5 goals a dream scenario for any sports trader, finding a team that consistently does something.
The great thing about Southend was that they were just above average for over 2.5 goals away from home, this often meant that their odds for under 2.5 at home were artificially high because of what had happened to them in their previous game.
By the way they're my beloved because of the amount of money their stingy defence and profligate strikers made me.
Betfair Trading Advice:
Low scoring home teams should be part of your staple diet when it comes to trading in the under 2.5 market. In general football teams tend to concede less goals at home than they do away, so when you combine this with low scoring it tends to pay dividends.
It’s hard to put a percentage value on how many of your trades should involve low scoring home teams but I would say it should definitely be 50% or more. In fact you can use them to gauge how conservative your strategy is. If you are trading mainly these type of teams then you are being conservative which isn't necessarily a bad thing. But if you are looking for ways to be a bit riskier in this market, thus accessing potentially higher returns, then cut down on the amount of low scoring home teams you trade in as these will always have the lowest odds.
Low Scoring Away Teams
The reason I like low scoring away teams is because generally, away goals are harder to come by than home goals. Wretched form can strike a team at any time home or away or both at the same time. But a lack of goals away from home is harder to rectify than home goals, for one thing you haven’t got home referee bias, fuelled by the home crowd to help you out.
So a team who is scoring few or even better no away goals from the start of the season will more likely keep that form than any other. Even when that team is doing well away from home it will mainly be 1-0 wins or plucky fought 0-0 or 1-1 draws.
Betfair Trading Advice
Make sure you keep low scoring away teams in your portfolio, they can be easy to miss, especially if they go on a run of being beaten with high scores to nil. or if they are scoring lots of goals at home. But ignore them at your peril as they can often be involved in games whereby the under 2.5 odds are 1.9 and higher.
Because it's not humanly possible to track every single team all the time we use current form to test a team's season average.
So in the example above we are looking at the under 2.5 goal stats for Burnley at home and below West Brom away. We can see that 32% (rounded up) of Burnley's home games ended with 3 goals or more and 37% of West Broms away games.
Let's imagine that we see that on game 24 of the season Burnley are at home to West Brom, we've noticed earlier in the season that this could be a 'perfect storm' game of low scoring/low conceding at home meet low scoring/low conceding away.
If we were to use the above stats which at the time were even better for our under 2.5 trade, then we would see it as a game we would be able to get quite a lot from. But as we can see from below, current form tell's it's own story.
As you can see that in the 2 home games for Burnley before the West Brom game; both ended over 2.5 goals with the Palace game ending up over 4.5 goals. Add to that the two high scoring away games before that and the picture starts to look bleak. One other indicator that current form is not in line with overall form is that Burnley have conceded in each of the previous 5 games and only failed to score once.
The final nail in the coffin for an under 2.5 trade on the West Brom game is if you look to the right you can see that all of their half time scores were either over or on the brink of being over 2.5 goals. Clearly if we were coming in to trade on them on the 8th of Feb then we would rightly deduce that their form was not matching their season performance so far and this is either a turning point or a blip, but either way they are not good for trading in the unders market and won't be for at least a few more weeks, once we see if they settle back to their season 'norm'.
We can look at the away stats, although in this situation I would really only be checking to see if West Brom were absolutely thrashed the week before, otherwise those home statistics for Burnley would be enough to put me off any kind of under trade.
So we can see that West Brom's stats are no where near as conclusive as they are for Burnley and in fact you may have made a case for their up coming game with Burnley to be under 2.5. Their last 3 away games have been under and 2 of the half time scores have been 0-0.
However there are subtle clues and I'm not talking about the 0-3 loss to Spurs, but more the fact that home or away they are not scoring and have combined it with the lethal combination of conceding in practically every game.
Betfair Trading Advice
Always look at current from, the last 3-5 games overall and then look at recent home or away games, obviously relating to whether that team’s next game is home or away; remember sometimes you may find that away form is shocking and home is good, so it’s always best to bear that in mind when checking form.
Be careful of the 2s! If you see that 2 goals have been conceded and scored more than 50% of the last 3 games of both teams that you are going to trade on, stay away as this usually indicates an over 2.5
I've left the weakest indicator till last, it is weak because it relies a lot on human reaction and human nature, but as always with riskier trades, it can lead to greater rewards.
An example of a special circumstance would be a cup match, especially if you have a solid team playing a good middle table type team who is a league above. So you may get a team that are scoring and letting in goals left right and centre. They get drawn in one of the cups with another team that is also seeing the goals fly in, meaning the odds will not represent how tight the game is likely to be.
In the later rounds of the cup so at least the quarter finals. It is these conditions that can lead to the first half of the match being very tight, in fact the closer to the final you get the tighter it will be. To the point that a lot of cup finals in England and the major European ones at half time are often either 0-0 or 1-0 home or away.
This obviously gives the under 2.5 goal trader an excellent opportunity, for the obvious reason that two such high scoring teams with leaky defences will have pretty high odds of their match finishing at under 2.5 goals.
Betfair Trading Advice
This is the weakest of all the indicators, however that doesn't mean it is about to be ignored, especially when trading FA Cup or Champions' League semi finals and finals. Look to trade out by the end of the first half as 2-1 is a popular Champions League final result and cup games often liven up in the second half.
OK that's it for the selection process, over the last two articles we have looked at the best kind of teams to look for when we want to trade in the under 2.5 goal market in English football. Next we are going to look at how to pair these teams up so that we can get the highest possible yield from our trades.
We will look at the statistical likelihoods of certain matches finishing either under or over 2.5 goals and finally in the last article we'll look at our in-game strategy and making sure that even if a game we pick finishes over that if there is a chance we still make money.