On the afternoon of Saturday 11th of March, I put out an email to the BTT Subscribers in which I identified a great value bet that I had spotted to do with the FA Cup game that evening between, Arsenal and Lincoln.
I have pointed out before that one of the best things about Betfair, is you can profit from sporting teams or individuals who come close to their goals, but end up with no cigar to celebrate.
Lincoln stood little to no chance against the Premier League giants Arsenal; seeing as the Gunners had endured a humiliating defeat against Bayern Munich in midweek. The chances of Wenger putting out a makeshift side who were going to take Lincoln lightly could not have been far above zero percent.
However we can never rule out psychology in sports, in fact at the top level of any sport, we can see that the state of a player's mind is often more important than any skill they have or tactics they employ.
So back to Saturday evening, and my prediction that Lincoln would defend well enough to keep a 0-0 scoreline in the game for long enough for a Betfair trader to make money, was spot on. A combination of a restless Emirates crowd and a nervous Arsenal team, saw to that.
The main point to take away here, is that good value betting can often be found when an underdog, or perceived underdog take on a big team.
This is because Betfair is a living breathing organism; not a mindless algorithm. The odds of 50 for 0-0 (later rising to 70, which prompted me to put another £10 on it), meant that there was somebody out there, willing to risk 49 times their original stake by laying 0-0.
Those people would have started to worry slightly as Lincoln set about their task doggedly. By 40 minutes, they would have been having kittens. That panic would have directly translated in the odds plummeting down to what 0-0 odds usually are.
Of course Theo Wallcot scored in the 44th minute, and the rest as they say, is FA Cup history. Anyway, check out my original subscriber email below, and the screenshots at the end of how the trade panned out.
Make sure you have a think about any mismatch ups coming up that you can profit from.
Most of all, remember to join the BTT Family and subscribe so that you never miss a BTT Tip ever again.
BTT Subscriber email 12:00:
Arsenal v Lincoln 11/03/2017
Greetings fellow traders!
To the new members of the BTT Family, let me take this opportunity to welcome you into the fold. It has been a while since I've posted, for reasons of life the universe and everything.
However I always say a little bit of a great thing, is better than a whole lot of average, and for you today I have a nice value bet in this evening's FA Cup game at the Emirates stadium, where Arsenal take on non league giants, Lincoln.
Lincoln have done the impossible so far, they've beaten Brighton and Burnley in their last two games. Can they do it today?
Well Arsenal are not only going through their traditional mid-season collapse, they are doing so in spectacular style, and Wenger's reign, well may be coming to an end.
Does that mean they'll lose at home to Lincoln?
However, Lincoln will do what they've done in the last 2 rounds, and defend as though their lives depended on it. In the hope that they can stop any goals, and nick one on the break.
Ian Wright claimed before Arsenal's thrashing on Tuesday night, that they were not mentally tough enough, and he is right.
So enough waffling, and on to the great value bet. At odds of 50, the 0-0 has got to be worth a 20-30 minute back. Depending on how well Lincoln start, will dictate how quickly those odds come plummeting down, giving some nice profit on the lay side.
I've done it, will you join me?
PS, I've also gone the more conservative Arsenal lay with the same thing in mind, a slow 1st half for Arsenal or even an early Lincoln goal will throw the cat amongst the Betfair pigeons.
Good luck and happy trading
The Zen Trader