How To Dutch The Correct Score Market

The Dutchman.jpg

In this article you’ll learn about the term Dutching or Dutch, what it means and how to implement a Dutch on the Betfair Exchange, in this case on the correct score market in football, but once you've learnt the principles you can apply it to a variety of markets.

The term Dutch was apparently invented by the famous 20th century gangster Dutch Schultz, the legend says that he used to love betting in this way, I suppose nobody before him had thought of betting in this way.

So; what is Dutching? What are you actually doing when you Dutch a bet?

Well put simply it’s a kind of spread bet, not to be confused with what we call spread betting today the kind you get with companies like Sporting Index whereby you’re given a points spread which you have to bet over or under.

In that kind of spread betting you are given a range of points so you may well be betting the yellow and red card points spread in a game of football or the amount of points a team might get in a season. So for instance Arsenal could be given a points spread of 79-82 so you would be able to bet under over or you could bet the spread.

You then chose how much money per point you want to risk, so a spread bet on Arsenal’s point tally for the season might sound something like, £20 per point, bet under.

So in that scenario if Arsenal got less than 79 points you would win £20 for every point under 79,  however if the went over 79 points, then you would lose £20 for every point they got over the spread.

In this type of spread betting you can also bet the spread essentially saying that you think Arsenal will get between 79 and 82 points in which case you’d win 4 points so for £20 per point you’d win £80.

Another term you may have heard of in relation to Betfair is the point spread, this simply refers to the under/over market. Betfair and Betdaq use the term under or over 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 and so on goals. The reason they use half a goal is so that the market can be boiled down to two outcomes, if they didn't then each of those markets I mentioned above would have to have an exactly option in there; for instance less than 3 goals, more than 3 goals and exactly 3 goals.

So Dutching is not per point spread betting and it is not betting the points spread, instead Dutching is a kind of controlled spread bet whereby you decide what market or markets you want to spread your liability over.

The secret with Dutching is to cover outcomes that give you an insurance policy should things go wrong. The skill comes in knowing what to cover and when, first of all we'll look at the Swansea/Everton game in the English Premiership below.

OK, so above you can see that I've covered 0-1 with £5 and 0-2 with £7 at odds of 9.4 and 17.5 respectively for potential profits of £42 and £115.50

So this kind of Dutch indicates that I'm expecting a tight game as both of these teams are low scorers and first half goals are scant, I'm also expecting Everton to at least go ahead and to probably just edge the win.

So that covers what I think will happen in the match, now I look to what can go wrong. Even though Everton are on the better form and Swansea aren't scoring many first half goals, I know that Swansea scoring first and early on will ruin my above bet.

So I lay the half time (HT) score of 0-0. So now if the game starts and is goes against me with a Swansea goal in the first 10 minutes I will lose my £12 from my two correct score bets; but I will win £4.95 from my 0-0 HT lay resulting in a net loss of £7.

Then there are two ways the game can go well for me, the first is if Everton score one goal in the first 20 minutes.

In that scenario I win my 0-0 HT lay £4.95 and the 0-1 scoreline will drop from 9.4 to somewhere between 4 and 7 depending on how the game is going, at that point I will have a chance to cash out on my 0-1 for around £5 green on all scores apart from 0-2 which I would still have in the high £90s.

The second way it could go well for me is if Everton score 2 goals in the first half an hour to forty minutes; then I would have had a chance to green up on all the scores when it was 0-1 and then get an even better green on 0-2

Note: At 0-1 with Everton playing well, I would still look to green up on all other scores as an equalising goal from Swansea would ruin the trade. Even if I had covered 1-2 a Swansea equaliser would put me in a scenario where I would need an Everton goal.

Another way of using correct scores to Dutch is when you believe a favourite might lose or draw a tight game. So below I still think Swansea won't win, but I'm not so sure how.

So now you can see that my main bet is the Swansea lay, with a potential profit of £23.75 and a potential loss of £40. This time I have covered Swansea 1-0 and 2-0 for £4 and £2 at odds of 8.4 and 13.5 respectively. My profit and loss (P&L) calculation for these bets are Loss of £6 and Profit of £26.22 for 1-0 and £19.95 for 2-0.

In this scenario if the game went against me in the worst possible way in the first 20 minutes i.e. Swansea scoring two quick goals I'll have a chance to green up on 2-0 for around £10 which would leave me facing a net loss of £30.

The difference with this scenario over the first is that I will have a decision as to whether I'm going to take a loss on my lay or not. The kind of loss would really depend on the type of game and how quickly the goals came.

Hopefully I haven't misread my research too badly and Swansea are not all over them and the goals are spread out at 20 minute intervals in the first half, then I may have the opportunity to cash out for an all round loss of about £20, which when added to my correct score green would give me a net loss of just £10.

If the game goes as I expect and it's tight and the HT scoreline is either 0-0 or 0-1 then I will have a chance to green up on my lay bet.

Note: The ideal scenario is 0-0 and the game really looking like a draw, that way I could green up on my lay bet, probably for around £10 or £15. Then I could go into the second half knowing that I was on a net win of £4 or £9 and I would have a chance to increase that if Swansea nicked a goal as then I'd have 1-0 covered and I could get green for around £5 on every score apart from 2-0 which I'd have more on.

Software

You can use the trading bots that are out there to help you Dutch scores, horses or any event where Dutching is possible, which will make it easier to calculate the sums of money you should be putting on each selection, however I would suggest getting used to this strategy putting in the figures manually.

By doing that you will get more of a feel for the technique, which will stand you in good stead if you do move onto software.

Note: Above are two pretty standard examples of Dutching whereby I've placed my entire stake before the match has started. However in the first example I may have decided to Dutch the 0-0 HT score after the match is already under way; which of course is much riskier, but with higher rewards.

All in all, Dutching can be a way of minimising your risk on a potentially high reward trade, but those risks increase if you start dutching in-play.

If you feel this technique might be for you and you don't yet have a Betfair and/or a Betdaq account then;

Get your Betfair signup bonus here

Get your Betdaq sign up bonus here

Good luck and Happy Trading;

The Zen Trader